Report findings

According to Glenn, the worsening long-term outlook and the earlier OASI depletion date were driven by several key changes in the report’s assumptions. The most significant, she said, was a reduction in the assumed total fertility rate from 1.90 to 1.75 children per woman, reflecting recent low birth rates and societal changes. The projections also assume lower levels of net immigration and incorporate the effects of last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

These factors contributed to a change in the long-range actuarial balance measure, which Glenn described as “the amount of extra taxes we would need … to keep us solvent over the next 75 years, and give us a one-year cushion.” That measure “increased significantly this year,” she said. “It was 3.82% in last year’s report, and we’re now at 4.42%.”

While the OASI fund’s depletion date moved up, the depletion date for the combined OASI and Disability Insurance (DI) trust funds remains the third quarter of 2034. “That’s the same as we saw in last year’s report, and that’s due to some offsetting factors,” Glenn said, noting that an improved near-term economic outlook counteracted other negative pressures. The DI trust fund, as in last year’s report, is projected to remain solvent for the next 75 years.

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